Electricity News

Friday 01 August 2008

The Poyry report downplays concerns about the intermittency of wind farms in its report on a future capacity gap

Britain will have "little or no need" for large-scale investment in conventional power plants until 2020 if it achieves its European renewable energy targets now being set for that deadline.

That is the conclusion of energy consultants Poyry, who have seen their study published today concerning  how a successful achievement of the UK's renewable energy targets would affect any potential "capacity gap" in the future electricity network.

The report has been hailed by conservation groups WWF and Greenpeace, who commissioned it, as proof that no new coal or gas power stations are needed in the UK.

However, the study is based on some hefty assumptions - including that work on improving the nation's energy efficiency is carried out, that carbon capture technology and CHP systems are more widely used, and that barriers to new renewable energy generation projects are broken down.

Assuming that issues like planning delays, grid connection issues and supply chain shortages are dealt with, Poyry suggests that up to 52GW of installed renewable energy capacity by 2020 will mean Britain does not suffer blackouts.

The study, which models six scenarios for the future network balance using national and EU forecasts for demand and the targets laid out in the government's draft Renewable Energy Strategy, also takes as read that emerging low carbon energy technologies become commercially viable.

The Poyry consultants dismissed the possibility of a "no wind day" hitting the UK's network of wind farms as a "very low probability" event.

But, accepting that more renewable energy installations will mean a greater intermittency, the report said a margin of 25%-35% beyond expected demand levels will be needed for UK capacity to be secure.

Conclusions

The report's conclusions called on policymakers to guarantee a long-term framework for renewable energy investment and operation, and tackle the kind of barriers to renewable energy the report assumed will be tackled.

It also said demand-side work will be needed, including a focus on energy efficiency to reduce energy consumption.

Poyry's report concluded: "If the above issues are addressed effectively, there is little or no need for large-scale investment in conventional baseload technology in the period up to 2020."

Beyond 2020, it went on to suggest there was a "range of options for continued growth in low-carbon capacity", including more marine renewable projects, industrial CHP schemes and carbon capture and storage technology.

Kingsnorth

Commenting on the report, the groups that commissioned it said that if the government was "serious" about renewables and energy efficiency, "Britain doesn't need to build major new power stations to keep the lights on".

Greenpeace and the WWF released the report today ahead of next week's Climate Camp protest of E.ON's proposed new Kingsnorth coal power units in Kent.

Robin Oakley, head of the climate and energy team at Greenpeace, said today there was no need for the Kingsnorth plant: "E.ON's spin machine and the Labour government have teamed up to hoodwink the public into believing it, but this report busts their argument wide open."

Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF-UK, said: "This report should be good news for the Government. If it gets real on its targets on renewables and energy efficiency then we can keep the lights on, reduce our reliance on expensive fossil fuel imports and dramatically cut our carbon emissions. But a green light to Kingsnorth would at a stroke undermine the Government's other policies on climate change and Gordon Brown's promise of a clean energy revolution."

Renewables industry

Meanwhile, the UK renewable energy industry claimed the Poyry report was "solid evidence" that renewables and energy efficiency could provide a secure future for UK electricity.

Phililp Wolfe, executive director of the Renewable Energy Association, said: "This very timely report is essential summer reading for politicians. Here is solid evidence that energy efficiency and renewables alone can put the UK on a secure footing, both for future energy supply and for mitigating climate change. It is hard to imagine how the public could be better served in these precarious times than by committing the UK to the wholly safe, sane and effective pathway this report sets out.

"Government can hit the ground running next session by supporting the package of new measures the industry is seeking under the current Energy Bill - and by championing ambitious provisions in the EU renewables directive," Mr Wolfe added.